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tfwee November 18, 2017 Uncategorised No Comments »

REITs : Year End Data (Continued)

STI -14.34% : 2882.73 (Dec-15) vs 3365.15 (2014)				STI +4.24% : 3365.15 (Dec-14) vs 3167.43 (2013)
2015	Dec-15	Dec-14	Change	2014	Dec-14	Dec-13	Change
Saizen REIT	$ 1.090	$ 0.860	26.7%	SuntecReit	$ 1.960	$ 1.540	27.3%
A-HTrust	$ 0.740	$ 0.680	8.8%	Fortune Reit HK$	$ 7.760	$ 6.240	24.4%
Keppel DC REIT	$ 1.015	$ 0.975	4.1%	CapitaRChina	$ 1.615	$ 1.330	21.4%
MIT	$ 1.520	$ 1.485	2.4%	CapitaComm	$ 1.755	$ 1.450	21.0%
Fortune Reit HK$	$ 7.900	$ 7.760	1.8%	MCT	$ 1.410	$ 1.190	18.5%
BHG REIT	$ 0.800	$ 0.800	0.0%	First REIT	$ 1.255	$ 1.060	18.4%
ParkwayLife Reit	$ 2.330	$ 2.380	-2.1%	MGCT	$ 0.950	$ 0.840	13.1%
SB REIT	$ 0.770	$ 0.790	-2.5%	MapletreeLog	$ 1.185	$ 1.055	12.3%
FrasersCT	$ 1.845	$ 1.895	-2.6%	FCOT	$ 1.415	$ 1.270	11.4%
AIMSAMP Cap Reit	$ 1.375	$ 1.415	-2.8%	MIT	$ 1.485	$ 1.335	11.2%
Mapletree GCC Tr	$ 0.915	$ 0.950	-3.7%	Ascendasreit	$ 2.380	$ 2.200	8.2%
Ascendasreit	$ 2.280	$ 2.380	-4.2%	FrasersCT	$ 1.895	$ 1.760	7.7%
First REIT	$ 1.200	$ 1.255	-4.4%	CapitaMall	$ 2.040	$ 1.905	7.1%
CapitaMall	$ 1.930	$ 2.040	-5.4%	SPH REIT	$ 1.040	$ 0.980	6.1%
StarhillGbl Reit	$ 0.755	$ 0.800	-5.6%	CDL Htrust	$ 1.740	$ 1.640	6.1%
Lippo Malls Tr	$ 0.320	$ 0.340	-5.9%	AscottREIT	$ 1.270	$ 1.205	5.4%
AscottREIT	$ 1.185	$ 1.270	-6.7%	Keppel DC REIT	$ 0.975	$ 0.930	4.8%
CapitaRChina	$ 1.490	$ 1.615	-7.7%	CLT	$ 1.160	$ 1.115	4.0%
MCT	$ 1.300	$ 1.410	-7.8%	OUE H-Trust	$ 0.905	$ 0.875	3.4%
SPHREIT	$ 0.955	$ 1.040	-8.2%	K-REIT	$ 1.220	$ 1.185	3.0%
FrasersComm	$ 1.270	$ 1.415	-10.2%	SB REIT	$ 0.790	$ 0.770	2.6%
VIT	$ 0.710	$ 0.795	-10.7%	VIT	$ 0.795	$ 0.775	2.6%
OUE H-Trust	$ 0.770	$ 0.905	-14.9%	StarHill	$ 0.800	$ 0.785	1.9%
Frasers Htrust	$ 0.750	$ 0.890	-15.7%	ParkwayLife Reit	$ 2.380	$ 2.350	1.3%
MapletreeLog	$ 0.990	$ 1.185	-16.5%	IREIT	$ 0.890	$ 0.880	1.1%
Cambridge	$ 0.565	$ 0.680	-16.9%	FHT	$ 0.890	$ 0.880	1.1%
FE-HTrust	$ 0.665	$ 0.815	-18.4%	OUE C-REIT	$ 0.805	$ 0.800	0.6%
OUE C-REIT	$ 0.655	$ 0.805	-18.6%	AIMSAMPIReit	$ 1.415	$ 1.430	-1.0%
SuntecReit	$ 1.550	$ 1.960	-20.9%	Cambridge	$ 0.680	$ 0.690	-1.4%
CLT	$ 0.910	$ 1.160	-21.6%	FE-HTrust	$ 0.815	$ 0.840	-3.0%
IREIT Global	$ 0.690	$ 0.890	-22.5%	A-HTrust	$ 0.680	$ 0.720	-5.6%
CapitaComm	$ 1.350	$ 1.755	-23.1%	SaizenREIT	$ 0.860	$ 0.925	-7.0%
K-REIT	$ 0.930	$ 1.220	-23.8%	Sabana REIT	$ 0.940	$ 1.080	-13.0%
CDL Htrust	$ 1.325	$ 1.740	-23.9%	LippoMapleT	$ 0.340	$ 0.415	-18.1%
Sabana	$ 0.715	$ 0.940	-23.9%

kktan January 5, 2016 REIT One Comment »

REITs : Year End Data

STI +0.01% : 3167.43 (Dec-13) vs 3167.08 (2012)				STI +19.68% : 3167.08 (Dec-12) vs 2646.35 (2011)
2013	Dec-13	Dec-12	Change	2012	Dec-12	Dec-11	Change
PLife REIT	$ 2.350	$ 2.150	9.3%	FCOT	$ 1.320	$ 0.740	78.4%
SPH REIT	$ 0.980	$ 0.900	8.9%	Fortune Reit HK$	$ 6.370	$ 3.760	69.4%
Cambridge	$ 0.690	$ 0.675	2.2%	CapitaComm	$ 1.685	$ 1.055	59.7%
SaizenREIT	$ 0.925	$ 0.181	2.2%	AIMSAMPIReit	$ 1.495	$ 0.945	58.2%
First REIT	$ 1.060	$ 1.060	0.0%	K-REIT	$ 1.295	$ 0.830	56.0%
StarHill	$ 0.785	$ 0.785	0.0%	SuntecReit	$ 1.675	$ 1.075	55.8%
OUE H-Trust	$ 0.875	$ 0.880	-0.6%	CapitaRChina	$ 1.645	$ 1.150	43.0%
VIT	$ 0.775	$ 0.780	-0.6%	MCT	$ 1.215	$ 0.850	42.9%
SB REIT	$ 0.770	$ 0.780	-1.3%	Cambridge	$ 0.675	$ 0.475	42.1%
MIT	$ 1.335	$ 1.360	-1.8%	LippoMapleT	$ 0.490	$ 0.350	40.0%
Fortune Reit HK$	$ 6.240	$ 6.370	-2.0%	First REIT	$ 1.060	$ 0.760	39.5%
MCT	$ 1.190	$ 1.215	-2.1%	StarHill	$ 0.785	$ 0.565	38.9%
FCOT	$ 1.270	$ 1.320	-3.8%	FrasersCT	$ 2.000	$ 1.440	38.9%
AIMSAMPIReit	$ 1.430	$ 1.495	-4.3%	AscottREIT	$ 1.360	$ 0.990	37.4%
Sabana REIT	$ 1.080	$ 1.140	-5.3%	MapletreeLog	$ 1.145	$ 0.845	35.5%
Ascendasreit	$ 2.200	$ 2.370	-7.2%	CLT	$ 1.240	$ 0.950	30.5%
MapletreeLog	$ 1.055	$ 1.145	-7.9%	Sabana REIT	$ 1.140	$ 0.875	30.3%
SuntecReit	$ 1.540	$ 1.675	-8.1%	Ascendasreit	$ 2.370	$ 1.830	29.5%
K-REIT	$ 1.185	$ 1.295	-8.5%	SaizenREIT	$ 0.181	$ 0.140	29.3%
MGCT	$ 0.840	$ 0.930	-9.7%	MIT	$ 1.360	$ 1.075	26.5%
CLT	$ 1.115	$ 1.240	-10.1%	CapitaMall	$ 2.130	$ 1.700	25.3%
CapitaMall	$ 1.905	$ 2.130	-10.6%	CDL Htrust	$ 1.880	$ 1.545	21.7%
AscottREIT	$ 1.205	$ 1.360	-11.4%	PLife REIT	$ 2.150	$ 1.790	20.1%
FrasersCT	$ 1.760	$ 2.000	-12.0%	FE-Htrust	$ 1.005	$ 0.930	8.1%
CDL Htrust	$ 1.640	$ 1.880	-12.8%	A-Htrust	$ 0.940	$ 0.880	6.8%
CapitaComm	$ 1.450	$ 1.685	-13.9%
LippoMapleT	$ 0.415	$ 0.490	-15.3%
FE-HTrust	$ 0.840	$ 1.005	-16.4%
CapitaRChina	$ 1.330	$ 1.645	-19.1%
A-HTrust	$ 0.720	$ 0.940	-23.4%

STI -17.04% : 2646.35 (Dec-11) vs 3190.04 (2010)				STI +10.09% : 3190.04 (Dec-10) vs 2897.62 (2009)
2011	Dec-11	Dec-10	Change	2010	Dec-10	Dec-09	Change
PLife REIT	$ 1.790	$ 1.650	8.5%	PLife REIT	$ 1.650	$ 1.220	35.2%
First REIT	$ 0.760	$ 0.705	7.8%	CapitaComm	$ 1.500	$ 1.170	28.2%
MIT	$ 1.075	$ 1.090	-1.4%	K-REIT	$ 1.410	$ 1.100	28.2%
CLT	$ 0.950	$ 0.965	-1.6%	Fortune Reit HK$	$ 4.000	$ 3.130	27.8%
MCT	$ 0.850	$ 0.880	-3.4%	MapletreeLog	$ 0.965	$ 0.785	22.9%
FrasersCT	$ 1.440	$ 1.500	-4.0%	StarHill	$ 0.625	$ 0.525	19.0%
Fortune Reit HK$	$ 3.760	$ 4.000	-6.0%	CDL Htrust	$ 2.080	$ 1.750	18.9%
CapitaRChina	$ 1.150	$ 1.240	-7.3%	FCOT	$ 0.165	$ 0.140	17.9%
StarHill	$ 0.565	$ 0.625	-9.6%	Cambridge	$ 0.530	$ 0.450	17.8%
Sabana REIT	$ 0.875	$ 0.975	-10.3%	MIT	$ 1.090	$ 0.930	17.2%
FCOT	$ 0.740	$ 0.825	-10.3%	SuntecReit	$ 1.500	$ 1.350	11.1%
Cambridge	$ 0.475	$ 0.530	-10.4%	SaizenREIT	$ 0.165	$ 0.150	10.0%
Ascendasreit	$ 1.830	$ 2.070	-11.6%	CLT	$ 0.965	$ 0.880	9.7%
MapletreeLog	$ 0.845	$ 0.965	-12.4%	CapitaMall	$ 1.950	$ 1.800	8.3%
CapitaMall	$ 1.700	$ 1.950	-12.8%	FrasersCT	$ 1.500	$ 1.400	7.1%
AIMSAMPIReit	$ 0.945	$ 1.100	-14.1%	LippoMapleT	$ 0.530	$ 0.505	5.0%
SaizenREIT	$ 0.140	$ 0.165	-15.2%	AIMSAMPIReit	$ 0.220	$ 0.215	2.3%
AscottREIT	$ 0.990	$ 1.220	-18.9%	AscottREIT	$ 1.220	$ 1.200	1.7%
CDL Htrust	$ 1.545	$ 2.080	-25.7%	CapitaRChina	$ 1.240	$ 1.280	-3.1%
SuntecReit	$ 1.075	$ 1.500	-28.3%	Ascendasreit	$ 2.070	$ 2.220	-6.8%
CapitaComm	$ 1.055	$ 1.500	-29.7%	Sabana REIT	$ 0.975	$ 1.050	-7.1%
LippoMapleT	$ 0.350	$ 0.530	-34.0%	First REIT	$ 0.705	$ 0.815	-13.5%
K-REIT	$ 0.830	$ 1.410	-41.1%

Observations :

REIT Prices seems to alternate between +ve & -ve cycles for the past 4 years
There appear to be a correlation to the STI, but with over-swings

Comments :

Perhaps when STI is +ve, REIT Mgrs will take the opportunity to aggressively issue New Equities for Acquisitions and these are usually Value Destructive. This will then be followed by a cycle of consolidation where DPU drops, followed by prices drop and finally, for acquired assets to stabilize (Initial Acquisition Related Expenses will Depress DPU) and start accrue to DPU.

To date, 2014 appears to be following the above cycle. STI is +ve and a few REITs have been issuing new equities to fund acquisitions..

Action :

Make hay while he sun shines? Most REITs are not suitable for long term hold as REIT Mgrs don’t align shareholders’ interest to their own interest (increase AUM to increase their own income). So far, I can only find FCT which have DPU which increases y-o-y since listing. Other REITs have Mgrs who recalculate past DPUs using newly enlarged Share Base to mislead Unit Holders of an increasing DPU y-o-y trend…

kktan May 1, 2014 REIT No Comments »

Singapore Bank – 2005 to 2013

The following is the comparison between the three Bank listed in SGX:

Singapore Bank	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005	Average of 5 Years	Average	Score
Dividend Rate
DBS	$ 0.563	$ 0.561	$ 0.568	$ 0.428	$ 0.573	$ 0.702	$ 0.610	$ 0.474	$ 0.445	$ 0.539	$ 0.547	3
OCBC	$ 0.37	$ 0.34	$ 0.08	$ 0.08	$ 0.09	$ 0.30	$ 0.27	$ 0.22	$ 0.17	$ 0.192	$ 0.213	2
UOB	$ 0.765	$ 0.665	$ 0.409	$ 0.255	$ 0.672	$ 0.677	$ 0.813	$ 0.665	$ 0.480	$ 0.553	$ 0.600	4
HLFin		$ 0.12	$ 0.12	$ 0.10	$ 0.02	$ 0.13	$ 0.32	$ 0.18	$ 0.22	$ 0.098	$ 0.152	1
Dividend Yield
DBS	3.29%	3.78%	4.93%	2.99%	3.72%	8.34%	2.95%	2.10%	2.70%	3.74%	3.87%	3
OCBC	3.59%	3.51%	1.02%	0.85%	0.97%	5.99%	3.29%	2.86%	2.46%	1.99%	2.73%	1
UOB	3.60%	3.36%	2.68%	1.40%	3.41%	5.24%	4.08%	3.43%	3.29%	2.89%	3.39%	2
HLFin		4.74%	5.72%	3.30%	0.63%	6.31%	8.42%	4.81%	6.18%	4.14%	5.01%	4
EPS
DBS	$ 1.486	$ 1.541	$ 1.243	$ 0.991	$ 0.870	$ 1.038	$ 1.235	$ 1.243	$ 1.080	$ 1.226	$ 1.192	3
OCBC	$ 0.773	$ 1.130	$ 0.664	$ 0.662	$ 0.607	$ 0.542	$ 0.631	$ 0.632	$ 0.399	$ 0.767	$ 0.671	2
UOB	$ 1.908	$ 1.692	$ 1.411	$ 1.764	$ 1.175	$ 1.227	$ 1.356	$ 1.644	$ 1.090	$ 1.590	$ 1.474	4
HLFin		$ 0.176	$ 0.226	$ 0.276	$ 0.252	$ 0.173	$ 0.303	$ 0.220	$ 0.209	$ 0.221	$ 0.229	1
PE
DBS	11.51	9.63	9.27	14.45	17.70	8.11	16.76	18.18	15.28	12.51	13.43	1
OCBC	13.20	8.61	11.79	14.92	14.99	9.21	13.14	12.18	16.79	12.70	12.76	3
UOB	11.13	11.71	10.82	10.32	16.77	10.53	14.68	11.80	13.39	12.15	12.35	4
HLFin		14.38	9.29	10.98	12.54	11.91	12.51	17.36	17.32	11.82	13.29	2
Payout Ratio
DBS	37.87%	36.41%	45.73%	43.20%	65.89%	67.63%	49.41%	38.14%	41.19%	45.82%	47.28%	3
OCBC	47.33%	30.26%	12.05%	12.63%	14.57%	55.13%	43.17%	34.84%	41.37%	23.37%	32.37%	1
UOB	40.10%	39.29%	28.95%	14.44%	57.22%	55.18%	59.93%	40.46%	44.03%	36.00%	42.18%	2
HLFin		68.12%	53.14%	36.20%	7.93%	75.11%	105.30%	83.49%	107.04%	48.10%	67.04%	4
FCF/Revenue Ratio
DBS	13.35%	-95.08%	-28.28%	81.96%	80.32%	-69.44%	55.61%	53.16%	-97.08%	10.45%	-0.61%	1
OCBC	-84.32%	75.00%	-53.32%	61.60%	124.41%	-82.87%	144.72%	54.03%	-25.39%	24.68%	23.76%	2
UOB	-183.1%	98.7%	-172.8%	206.3%	-3.6%	21.4%	96.4%	178.4%	42.8%	-10.90%	31.61%	3
HLFin		289.2%	-217.6%	-8.3%	173.6%	161.0%	242.5%	86.6%	-51.0%	79.58%	84.49%	4
Net Margin
DBS	48.51%	52.74%	50.19%	32.64%	36.44%	26.34%	26.94%	31.11%	17.77%	44.10%	35.85%	2
OCBC	48.10%	71.44%	46.59%	56.08%	51.50%	35.31%	41.46%	46.63%	40.27%	54.74%	48.60%	4
UOB	46.48%	45.48%	41.50%	54.41%	37.23%	28.65%	29.53%	37.71%	35.47%	45.02%	39.61%	3
HLFin		32.55%	44.34%	47.12%	36.10%	21.61%	36.78%	31.94%	32.66%	36.35%	35.39%	1
Score
DBS	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	16
OCBC	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	15
UOB	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	22
HLFin	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	17

Four points is assigned to the best bank in each category

Score is tabulated on the entire category. From the tabulated result:

1) UOB

2) DBS

3) OCBC

tfwee March 13, 2014 Bank No Comments »

FCT – TheEdge

DPU Payout History from SGX,

kktan October 25, 2013 FCT No Comments »

NeraTel – UOBKH

Nera Telecommunications NOT RATED
Price: S$0.73 Mkt Cap: US$213m Daily Vol: US$0.5m 1-Yr Hi/Lo: S$0.83/S$0.49

Network Specialist With Attached Payment Business

Nera Telecommunications (NeraTel) was incorporated in 1978 and was listed on SGX in 1999. It operates predominantly in the Asia Pacific region (Singapore: 40.3% of 2012 revenue, Indonesia: 11.9%, Thailand: 7.9%, Malaysia: 5.7% and Philippines: 5.1%).
NeraTel has three core businesses, namely Wireless Infrastructure Network (WIN), Network Infrastructure (NI) and Payment Solutions (PS):

a) WIN: NeraTel specialises in microwave transmission for mobile networks. It supports mobile operators in their 3G/LTE network expansion and roll-outs. It uses a common product platform, its Evo series of microwave radio built around a software defined core.

b) NI: NeraTel provides high-performance IP network infrastructure, such as wide area network linking corporate HQ with offices/branches, retail outlets and data centres. It collaborates with Juniper Networks to deliver products to customers in Southeast Asia.

WIN and NI are complementary network businesses. NeraTel undertakes turnkey network projects covering complete life cycle, including planning, designing, installation, commissioning, testing and post-sales service & support. NeraTel is vendor agnostic and customises the best solution for its customers.

c) PS: NeraTel provides end-to-end electronic payment solutions, including point-of-sale payment terminals, to the banking and retail industries. Management expects growth to be driven by Indonesia and Thailand. PS is a stable business with 50% of revenue coming from recurring sources such as maintenance and rental.

Three Core Businesses – WIN, NI And PS

	1H13 Revenue (S$m)	% of Total (%)	*Gross Margin (%)**	% from Recurrent Revenue (%)
Wireless Infrastructure Network (WIN)	32.5	38.9	24.9	20-30
Network Infrastructure (NI)	32.8	39.2	35.3	35
Payment Solutions (PS)	18.3	21.9	35.3	50
Total	83.6	100.0

*Based on financial performance in 2012. NI and PS was classified as Infocomm business in 2012.
Source: NeraTel

A new controlling shareholder. Northstar through its subsidiary Asia Systems acquired 181.1m NeraTel shares representing a controlling 50.1% stake from Nera ASA at S$88.8m or S$0.49/share in Nov 12. Northstar only managed to secure another 12m NeraTel shares in the subsequent general offer at the same price of S$0.49. In total, Northstar garnered a 53.4% stake in NeraTel at the close of the general offer in Jan 13.

Direct sourcing generated margin expansion. NeraTel acquired the Nera trademark and secured non-exclusive rights to provide microwave radio solutions in Middle East & North Africa in 2011. It has streamlined itself by using an ASEAN-based contract manufacturer to produce its own range of microwave transmission equipment instead of purchasing them from Nera ASA. The reorganisation helped improved gross margin from 23.7% in 2010 to 28.6% in 2011.
Growth drivers/catalysts: NeraTel’s order in-take has increased 21.2% yoy to S$121m in 1H13. Management expects growth to be driven by the WIN business:

a) Radio Access Network (RAN) Optimisation. NeraTel has secured a couple of orders for distributed antenna systems, which enhances in-building coverage for mobile operators.

b) 3G Data Offloading Using WiFi. Many mobile operators will be using small cells to extend coverage areas, increase network capacity and offload data traffic through the internet.

Order In-Take For 1H13

	Order In-Take	yoy % Chg
Wireless Infrastructure Network	S$44.0m	+13.1%
Network Infrastructure	S$55.3m	+28.9%
Payment Solutions	S$21.7m	+20.6%
Total	S$121.0m	+21.2%

Source: NeraTel

Unlocking value of PS business. NeraTel will be positioned as a network company. The accompanying PS business could be carved out as a separate entity. It could be listed/spin-off through an IPO. Management intends to provide more detailed financial information to help investors understand the value of its different businesses, including separate profit & loss, balance sheet and cash flow statements for the PS business.

Capital management and dividend policy. NeraTel has a solid balance sheet with net cash/share at S$0.07 as of Jun 13. It could gear up to improve its ROE, which was 30.5% in 2012. Management is in the midst of reviewing its capital structure and intends to have gearing at a conservative level. The optimal capital structure will be decided based on stability of cash flows, requirements for capex and opportunities for M&A.
NeraTel has already paid interim dividend of 2 cents/share. We expect management to maintain final dividend at 4 cents/share, bringing dividend for the full year to 6 cents/share. The stock currently provide lucrative dividend yield of 8.2% based on current share price of S$0.73.
Invest to acquire new capabilities. Management intends to pursue mergers & acquisitions in the areas of RAN optimisation and 3G data offloading, particularly companies that could provide local fulfilment in regional countries.
Management targets to double earnings over the next 4-5 years. NeraTel is able to tap on Northstar’s expertise, especially their knowledge and connections in Indonesia.
Attractive valuation. NeraTel trades at forward PE of 10.6x based on consensus estimate. Its peers in the WIN space include Ceragon Networks (loss making), Ntegrator International (loss making) and Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation (forward PE at 14.1x).