SingPost – Dividend Projection
Data for EPS, DPS and Payout Ratio
|
EPS (ct) |
DPS (ct) |
Payout Ratio |
|||||||||
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Total |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Total |
||
|
FY10 |
2.045 |
2.104 |
2.291 |
? |
? |
1.25 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
? |
? |
? |
|
FY09 |
2.051 |
1.943 |
1.899 |
1.834 |
7.726 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
2.50 |
6.25 |
80.90% |
|
FY08 |
1.998 |
2.065 |
1.914 |
1.793 |
7.766 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
2.50 |
6.25 |
80.48% |
|
FY07 |
1.610 |
1.888 |
1.780 |
2.100 |
7.290 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
2.50 |
6.25 |
85.73% |
|
FY06 |
1.540 |
1.580 |
1.720 |
1.620 |
6.460 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
1.75 |
5.50 |
85.14% |
Note : FY is End-March
Observation
– EPS had been on an uptrend since Q409 ie. 3 consecutive quarters
– Payout Ratio is around 80% for the past two years
Projection
– Q410 EPS is not expected to differ too much from Q310 EPS and high chance of a continued uptrend
– If we use the EPS for the 1st 3 Quarters to project the Q4 EPS,
=> Q4 EPS = 2.147ct or FY10 EPS = 8.857ct
– If we use an 80% Payout Ratio,
=> FY10 DPS = 6.869ct or 3.119ct
– So, the Projected Q410 DPS = 2.75 to 3.25ct (better than past 3 years of 2.5ct)
Caution
– Share price had gone up in tandem with market from a low of ~ $0.6x
– At $1.07 and using FY09 results, PE = 13.85 and Yield = 5.841%
– The improved EPS is also due to the Job Credits Scheme and with the phasing out of this government subsidy, EPS will be affected.