HLF
Share Price: $3.16 @ 25 April 2010
Year End: 31-Dec
|
|
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
Remark |
|
Cash |
1534.5 |
931.5 |
612.7 |
534 |
412.1 |
From Balance Sheet |
|
Long Term Debt |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
289.50 |
438.80 |
From Balance Sheet |
|
Total Current Asset |
8,936.00 |
9,689.20 |
9,962.40 |
7,504.10 |
7,175.60 |
From Balance Sheet |
|
Total Current Liabilities |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
From Balance Sheet |
|
Outstanding Shares |
440.18 |
440.18 |
439.72 |
437.18 |
434.92 |
From Balance Sheet |
|
Total Shareholder Equity |
1,468.70 |
1,365.20 |
1,341.20 |
1,392.60 |
1,371.70 |
From Balance Sheet |
|
Net Cash Flow ($) |
524.8 |
407.7 |
424.5 |
165.1 |
92.3 |
From CashFlow |
|
Total Cash Dividends ($) |
-8.80 |
-57.20 |
-140.30 |
-80.30 |
-97.30 |
From CashFlow |
|
Cash Flow From Operating Activities |
535.50 |
582.40 |
880.50 |
261.30 |
-121.40 |
From CashFlow |
|
Capital Expenditure |
-0.80 |
-1.20 |
-1.00 |
-0.60 |
-2.10 |
From CashFlow |
|
Revenue |
308.00 |
360.90 |
362.70 |
301.20 |
242.20 |
From Income Statement |
|
Gross Profit |
192.40 |
150.10 |
217.60 |
177.10 |
171.00 |
From Income Statement |
|
Net Income Before Taxes |
134.10 |
94.60 |
163.30 |
120.20 |
98.20 |
From Income Statement |
|
Net Income After Taxes |
111.20 |
78.00 |
133.40 |
96.20 |
79.10 |
From Income Statement |
|
EPS |
0.25 |
0.17 |
0.30 |
0.22 |
0.21 |
From Income Statement |
|
Share Price @ 31 Dec |
$3.16 |
$ 2.06 |
$ 3.79 |
$ 3.82 |
$ 3.62 |
|
|
Financial Strength Analysis of Company |
||||||
|
Cash Growth Rate |
64.73% |
52.03% |
14.74% |
29.58% |
#VALUE! |
Increase Good |
|
Long Term Debt Rate |
#DIV/0! |
#DIV/0! |
-100.00% |
-34.02% |
#VALUE! |
Decrease Good |
|
Working Capital (CA – CL) |
8,936.00 |
9,689.20 |
9,962.40 |
7,504.10 |
7,175.60 |
Positive Good |
|
Finanical Strength |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
20.79% |
31.99% |
Decrease Good |
|
Size of Company |
103.50 |
24.00 |
-51.40 |
20.90 |
#VALUE! |
Increase Good |
|
Debt Factor Benchmark |
Very Good |
Very Good |
Very Good |
Very Good |
Normal |
Very Good <25% Normal <50% Bad |
|
Performance Analysis of Company |
||||||
|
Gross Margin |
62.47% |
41.59% |
59.99% |
58.80% |
70.60% |
Increase Good (compare to Previous Year) |
|
Operating Margin |
43.54% |
26.21% |
45.02% |
39.91% |
40.55% |
Increase Good (compare to Previous Year) |
|
Net Margin |
36.10% |
21.61% |
36.78% |
31.94% |
32.66% |
Increase Good (compare to Previous Year) |
|
EPS Growth Rate |
45.66% |
-43.09% |
38.18% |
4.76% |
#VALUE! |
Increase Good (compare to Previous Year) |
|
ROE (Net Income After Tax/Equity) |
7.57% |
5.71% |
9.95% |
6.91% |
5.77% |
Increase Good (compare to Previous Year) |
|
Health Analysis of Company |
||||||
|
Net Cash Flow Growth Rate |
28.72% |
-3.96% |
157.12% |
78.87% |
#VALUE! |
Increase Good (compare to Previous Year) |
|
Net Cash Flow / Share Price @ 31 Dec Ratio |
37.73% |
44.96% |
25.47% |
9.89% |
5.86% |
Increase Good (compare to Previous Year) |
|
Cash Flow Benchmark @ 31 Dec |
Good |
Good |
Good |
Normal |
Normal |
Very Good >50% Good >20% Normal >0% Bad |
|
Net Cash Flow / Current Share Price Ratio |
37.73% |
29.31% |
30.55% |
11.95% |
6.72% |
Increase Good (compare to Previous Year) |
|
Cash Flow Benchmark @ Current Price |
Good |
Good |
Good |
Normal |
Normal |
Very Good >50% Good >20% Normal >0% Bad |
|
PE Analysis of Company |
||||||
|
P/E @ FY End |
12.54 |
11.91 |
12.47 |
17.36 |
17.24 |
Decrease Good Provided Earning Increase |
|
EPS Growth Rate / PE |
0.04 |
-0.04 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
#VALUE! |
Increase Good |
|
PE Benchmark @ 31 Dec |
Normal |
Bad |
Normal |
Normal |
#VALUE! |
Good > 1 Normal > 0 Bad |
|
P/E Based on Current Price |
12.54 |
18.27 |
10.39 |
14.36 |
15.05 |
Decrease Good Provided Earning Increase |
|
EPS Growth Rate / PE Based on Current Price |
0.04 |
-0.02 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
#VALUE! |
Increase Good |
|
P/E Benchmark @ Current Price |
Normal |
Bad |
Normal |
Normal |
#VALUE! |
Good > 1 Normal > 0 Bad |
|
Dividend Analysis of Company |
||||||
|
Dividend Per Share ($) |
$ 0.02 |
$ 0.13 |
$ 0.32 |
$ 0.18 |
$ 0.22 |
Increase Good |
|
Dividend Yield (%) |
0.63% |
6.31% |
8.42% |
4.81% |
6.18% |
|
|
Dividend Yield (%) Based on Current Price |
0.63% |
4.11% |
10.10% |
5.81% |
7.08% |
|
|
Payout Ratio |
7.93% |
75.11% |
104.96% |
83.49% |
106.53% |
|
|
Free Cash Flow |
534.70 |
581.20 |
879.50 |
260.70 |
-123.50 |
|
|
Free Cash Flow / Revenue Ratio |
173.60% |
161.04% |
242.49% |
86.55% |
-50.99% |
|
|
(Free Cash Flow / Revenue Ratio) |
7.80% |
-33.59% |
180.16% |
-269.74% |
#DIV/0! |
|
|
Peter Lynch Analysis |
||||||
|
Cash Net of Long Term Debt |
$1.04 |
$0.68 |
$0.46 |
$0.18 |
-$0.02 |
Increase Good |
|
Actual Price you are paying for the share |
$2.12 |
$1.38 |
$3.33 |
$3.64 |
$3.64 |
Lower than share price is good |
|
New P/E @ 31 Dec |
8.39 |
7.96 |
10.96 |
16.57 |
17.33 |
Decrease Good Provided Earning Increase |
|
EPS Growth Rate / New PE |
0.05 |
-0.05 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
#VALUE! |
Increase Good |
|
New PE Benchmark @ 31 Dec |
Normal |
Bad |
Normal |
Normal |
#VALUE! |
Good > 1 Normal > 0 Bad |
|
Actual Price you are paying for the share |
$2.12 |
$2.48 |
$2.70 |
$2.98 |
$3.18 |
Lower than share price is good |
|
New P/E @ Current Price |
8.39 |
14.32 |
8.89 |
13.57 |
15.14 |
Decrease Good Provided Earning Increase |
|
EPS Growth Rate/ New PE @ Current Price |
0.05 |
-0.03 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
#VALUE! |
Increase Good |
|
New PE Benchmark @ Current Price |
Normal |
Bad |
Normal |
Normal |
#VALUE! |
Good > 1 Normal > 0 Bad |
|
Free Cash Flow/Stock price |
38.44% |
64.10% |
52.77% |
15.61% |
-7.84% |
Standard=10% ; Good=20%; Mortgage your house to buy if its 100%!! |
|
Free Cash Flow/Current Stock Price |
38.44% |
41.78% |
63.30% |
18.87% |
-8.99% |
Standard=10% ; Good=20%; Mortgage your house to buy if its 100%!! |
Although Q1 Results looked good, it was mainly due to the write-back of $13.587Mil in Provision (for Structured Products). If we remove that, the Annualised EPS would have been flat. Nevertheless, I have decided to collect on price weakness for longer term hold. My reasons,
(1) NAV = $3.42 : The 3 banks are trading at a premium to their Book Value. For HLFin, current market price of $3.12 is at close to 10% discount. BUT, of course HLFin is much smaller in size and doesn not have a full banking license.
(2) Yield : Although current yield is ~2.5%, I'm expecting the dividend payout to increase. The payout used to be closer to 100% Net Profit but was cut during the financial crisis due mainly to provisions for their structured products. Even if they increase to just 50% payout, I'd expect an annual dividend of 11-13ct. This translates to 3-4% yield.
(3) Economy : Banks are Economy stocks. With Singapore GDP forecasted to be 5-7% this year, HLFin can only benefit from any real growth. Even now, with the Residential Property market being still so hot, I'm wondering why HLFin is not getting a share of it.
Let's hope I'm right!