Popular Holdings
All the data are extracted from the results (please counter-check in case of error),
|
|
FY08 |
FY09 |
FY10 |
FY11 |
Q112 |
Q212 |
Q312 |
|
Revenue |
434,995 |
450,317 |
514,648 |
522,440 |
141,633 |
118,593 |
166,453 |
|
Gross Profit |
66,635 |
64,236 |
74,699 |
83,342 |
26,919 |
18,922 |
33,598 |
|
Operating Profit |
16,511 |
-19,612 |
40,320 |
31,030 |
12,613 |
5,295 |
15,090 |
|
PBT |
16,689 |
-18,967 |
40,076 |
31,497 |
12,775 |
5507 |
15,192 |
|
Net Profit |
13,401 |
-17,509 |
31,200 |
23,830 |
10,237 |
4086 |
12,235 |
|
NPM |
3.08% |
NA |
6.06% |
4.56% |
7.23% |
3.45% |
7.35% |
|
Cash |
48,907 |
71,501 |
90,017 |
104,797 |
120,035 |
114,488 |
129,331 |
|
Properties (For Sale) |
— |
— |
— |
39,032 |
23,320 |
20,400 |
15,287 |
|
Development Properties |
84,450 |
76,561 |
82,507 |
37,526 |
38,659 |
40,082 |
64,270 |
|
Loan – CL |
16,400 |
50,408 |
11,156 |
5,008 |
779 |
759 |
764 |
|
Loan – NCL |
53,073 |
17,104 |
17,013 |
14,307 |
14,799 |
15,284 |
28,978 |
|
NAV (ct) |
30.13 |
20.74 |
21.45 |
22.68 |
23.66 |
23.69 |
24.73 |
|
EPS (ct) |
2.99 |
-3.53 |
4.53 |
2.83 |
1.22 |
0.48 |
1.44 |
|
DPS (ct) |
0.5 + 0.7 |
0.5 + 0.2 |
(0.5 + 0.5) + 0.2 |
0.4 + 0.6 |
– |
0.5 |
– |
|
Remarks |
— |
Jan-09 : Rights Issue ($19.7M) 1-for-2 @ $0.10 |
Feb-10 : Rights Issue ($25.333M) 3-for-10 @ $0.13 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Notes :
- All figures in S$'000 unless otherwise stated
- FY is End-Apr
Observations
Financials
Negatives
I went to check SGX Annc for the past 5 years on the Insider Transactions where Mr Chou Cheng Ngok has deemed interest (World Holdings Pte Ltd.). A summary,
Buying
1) 17-Mar-08 to 26-May-08 : Buy @ $0.255 to $0.295, Total $912k
2) 31-Oct-08 : Buy @ $0.12 (post rights), Total $12k
3) 29-Jan-09 : Rights @ $0.10, Total $12.5M
Selling
4) 24-Sep-09 to 10-Nov-09 : Sell @ $0.1706 to $0.2004, Total $1.17M
Buying
5) 8-Feb-10 : Rights @ $0.13, Total $14.35M
Selling
6) 23-Mar-10 to 8-Nov-10 : Sell @ $0.155 to $0.171, Total $2.37M
7) 9-Feb-12 : Sell @ $0.18, Total $540
Observations
1) Prior to the 1st Rights Issues on Jan-09, Mr Chou was buying regularly from the Open Market. That was during a bearish period when STI dropped -49% for FY08. It must have provided good price stability as his purchase price went up steadily from $0.255 to $0.295. He spent $912k here.
2) On Jan-09, Mr Chou had to come up with $12.5M for the 1st Rights Issues. We started to see him selling in the Open Market from then on. Prices got sold down from $0.2004 to $0.1706 and he raised $1.17M from this selling activities.
3) On Feb-10, Mr Chou had to come up with another $14.35M for the 2nd Rights Issues. He continued his selling activities at prices from $0.155 to $0.16 with one last small transaction at $0.171. He raised $2.37M here. The market was aborbing his selling well and the price didn't drop much.
4) On 9-Feb-12, one small SELL transaction got done @ $0.18. This may signify that Mr Chou has standing instruction with his broker to continue selling activities from ~ $0.18.
My Take
The 2 Rights Issues required $26.85M. Not sure how much cash Mr Chou originally had but I'd think this $26.85M requirement for the rights would be enough to wipe up all his Free Cash and he may even be on OD or collateral loan. From AR2011, I couldn't find any info on his Salary except that it's above $500k. So, I'm more inclined to think that his selling of Popular Shares has more to do with his cash flow rather than current share price being fully valued (since he's an insider and knows the biz better).
Do take note of the latest selling on 9-Feb-12 after a long lull from Nov-10. It could be an indication of more selling which'll cap the share price at $0.18 or even lower if Mr Chou needs cash again!
Dividends Collected
Calculations
My Recommendation to Mr Chou
If I were right about Mr Chou's cash flow problem, this is my recommendation to him,
So, everyone is HAPPY
The problem is how to recommend this to Mr Chou, if indeed that was his problem!
I did a follow up by paying $26 (treat it as one minimum stock transaction charge – so that I can get some peace-of-mind and sleep better) online to http://www.acra.gov.sg to buy the Financial Accounts for FY11 (Apr) of World Holdings (Pte) Ltd (Mr Chou holds Popular Holdings shares through this co.). Some useful extracts (Figures are at Company Level rather than Group as Group will consolidate Popular Holdings financials),
Comments
Some Useful Links + Extracts
Popular on Wikipedia
SGX Annc (20-3-12)
ACQUISITION OF EPILOGUE CATERING PTE. LTD. AND INCREASE IN PAID-UP CAPITAL OF EPILOGUE CATERING PTE. LTD.
Source : SGX
Epilogue Catering Pte Ltd
Source : JobStreet
AsiaOne (10-Sep-09)
He is days away from the official opening of prologue, the company's newest bookstore, located in Ion Orchard.
The two-storey outlet, sprawled over 16,000 sq ft, includes a cafe. Its upscale identity will be quite different from the family-oriented, fluorescent-lit heartlander look and feel that Popular bookstores have come to embody, he says.
'We don't want people to look at prologue as another shop based on the Popular template,' he says.
Source : AsiaOne
{prologue} Bookstore
2 Orchard Turn, Singapore 238801
Ph: +65 64651477
Prologue 位於新加坡烏節路的大型購物中心 ION Orchard 的頂樓 ，屬於區內知名的中英文書店。 Prologue 佔地 16,000 平方多呎， 2009 年 9 月開幕。書店分為兩層，底層主要售賣書籍雜誌，上層則用作擺賣來自世界各地的文具精品。
Prologue 店內的書籍的種類繁多，除有最新出版的小說雜誌繪本外，更有其他專業的參考書，絕對能夠滿足不同人士的要求。此外，店內環境雅致，除有落地式玻璃窗令店舖坐擁開揚的景觀，同時亦擺設特別的陳設品如恐龍雕塑等，令書店更添藝術氣息。
若顧客逛書店期間感到疲憊的話，不妨到店內的 JAMS Café 休息一下，於書香中細味店內精心炮製的咖啡，然後再鑽進這多采多姿的書本世界。
Source : UTravel
Diversification of Activities
Popular’s publishing business was a major factor in its growth in the 1990s. In 1996, the publishing arms accounted for 16.2% of turnover but 59.7% of pre-tax profit. In Hong Kong, Popular held a 70% share in the market for pre-school educational books and a 25-30% share of the primary school market.
In 1997, Popular Holdings was listed on the Singapore Exchange, offering 56.25 million shares in its Initial Public Offering, which was subscribed 28 times, bringing in some S$25.3 million. By this time, its retail chain had grown to 37 stores and 40 franchise outlets across Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong.
In 2002, Popular announced plans to establish its publishing and retail network across the Asia-Pacific region, and to expand its online publishing and electronic learning businesses. Part of these plans entailed turning its library of over 5,000 educational titles into online textbooks. China and the United States were identified as new markets, with S$30 million earmarked for investment in the Chinese electronic learning market. Within two years of this announcement, Popular’s retail network had grown to around 400 shops across Asia, and the company had annual sales of S$374.4 million and profits of S$15.6 million.
Popular diversified into property development in 2006, when it incorporated Property Land and purchased a S$12.5 million, 15,000 square foot site at Robin Road. This was its first luxury condominium development, although the company chairman Chou Cheng Ngok had some previous experience in the property market in Hong Kong in the 1970s. The company also bought a S$27 million, 29,000 square foot site at Shelford Road for another condominium development. By the end of 2007, Popular had acquired two more sites in the Balestier/Thomson area for a total of S$32 million.
In 2007, the company launched the Harris chain of bookstores offering solely English language titles, and entrenched its position in Hong Kong’s educational publishing market by offering English textbooks. Popular also began revamping its retail chain, offering more lifestyle products and updating bookstore layouts with additions like cafes to reflect changing consumer tastes.
In 2009, Popular opened a franchise outlet in Myanmar, and launched a series of pre-primary textbooks in China while building its Chinese distribution network. In Singapore, Popular opened a stationery concept store, while also introducing three e-learning portals and a new line of digital educational assessments.
Source : NLB
I went to do some legwork in town. My findings,
UrbanWrite @ Orchard Central
Prologue @ Ion Orchard
My Comments